M MarketRiskScan
U.S. Equity Market Risk

Understand market risk before it becomes obvious.

MarketRiskScan combines stock valuation, rates, credit, economic conditions, inflation, corporate fundamentals, and market internals into clear 0–100 composite risk outlooks for the U.S. equity market.

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Relative risk-state assessment · not a market-return forecast and not a probability of a crash, correction, or recession.
Registered Member Access
Today’s readings stay inside your dashboard.
Create an account to see the current MarketRiskScan assessment and follow how the risk picture changes over time.
  • 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month composite risk outlooks
  • 5%, 10%, 15%, and 20% qualitative Downside Risk Outlook
  • Daily Market Risk Report and key drivers
  • Current indicator data, freshness, and category detail
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How it works

A complicated market, simplified into a clear risk picture.

MarketRiskScan does not rely on a single indicator. It combines multiple dimensions of market and economic risk, normalizes them to a common scale, and produces horizon-specific composite risk assessments.

1

Scan the market

Pull current market, economic, credit, valuation, inflation, profitability, and investor-positioning data.

2

Normalize risk

Convert unlike indicators into comparable 0–100 risk scores using the model’s configured transformations, trends, and data-quality rules.

3

Build the outlook

Combine category scores into forward-looking 1-, 3-, 6-, and 12-month composite risk outlooks for U.S. equities.

Seven risk dimensions

See where risk is coming from.

The headline score is a composite. Open the dashboard to see every category ranked from higher to lower risk, then expand each one to inspect the underlying indicators.

V
Stock Valuation CAPE, market value relative to GDP, and equity risk premium.
R
Rates & Treasury Treasury yields, real yields, yield curve, and term-premium conditions.
C
Credit & Financial Stress Credit spreads, lending conditions, and broader financial stress.
E
Economy & Consumer Employment, housing, growth, and household-demand conditions.
I
Inflation & Energy Inflation momentum, underlying inflation, oil, and energy shocks.
P
Corporate Profits Profit growth, profitability, and profits relative to the economy.
M
Market Internals Volatility conditions and investor leverage.
Σ
Composite Outlook Weighted category risk combined into one clear 0–100 market-risk view.
Explore MarketRiskScan

Start simple. Go deeper when you want.

Methodology and research are open to everyone. Current model readings, the Daily Report, indicator status, and detailed risk factors are available to registered users.

At a glance

Market Risk Dashboard

See the current composite risk outlook, forward horizons, Downside Risk Outlook, category ranking, Data Quality, and expandable technical detail.

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Daily briefing

Daily Market Risk Report

Review the day’s risk environment, key drivers, category composition, and what changed in the latest model update.

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How it works

Methodology

Understand the indicators, transformations, horizon weights, category construction, Downside Risk Outlook, and data-quality rules.

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Evidence

Research Evidence

See what held up retrospectively, what failed stricter validation, and why MarketRiskScan publishes qualitative vulnerability rather than unsupported probabilities.

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Data transparency

Indicator Data

Inspect current underlying data inputs, publication freshness, availability, source details, and model status.

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Technical view

Risk Factor Detail

Expand each current category to see its configured indicators and how it contributes to the selected forward horizon.

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Risk assessment, not crash prediction.

MarketRiskScan measures relative U.S. equity downside-risk conditions on a 0–100 scale. A score is not a percentage probability of a correction, bear market, recession, or crash. The framework is designed to organize market-risk information clearly and consistently—not to provide individualized investment advice.